[[nid:67025; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; float: right; styleName:nyt_small]]The last doom-and-gloom column outlined the impending bloodbath many pundits see coming in the November 2014 midterm elections, just five months from now. This column is devoted to possibilities and glimmers of hope.
It looks as if Obamacare is going to work.
According to a May Health and Human Services report on the Affordable Care Act, more than 8 million people signed up for health coverage (28 percent of these aged 18 to 34), 1 million more than the goal, with another 3 million children under 26; 4.8 million under the Medicaid/Child Health Insurance Programs, and 5 million outside the marketplace in ACA-compliant plans. That 28 percent of younger, presumably healthier individuals who entered the insurance pool were needed to balance out those more vulnerable to help pay for the system.
Recent polls also show that a majority of Americans, even in red states, want ACA improved, not repealed. High-ranking Republicans who see the trends in public opinion are now softening and/or backing off their “repeal Obamacare” mantra.
Continuing signs show the economy is steadily and slowly improving. Those of us in variable investment funds see all-time market highs. Fewer mortgage foreclosures, improved housing starts, the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying policy and other indicators show a rising economy. Employment lags, but shows some growth.
Presidential popularity can yo-yo and lows can become highs. We’ll have to wait on that one.
Foreign and military policies offer controversies as in Yeats’ “… mere anarchy is loosed upon the world …” and give rhetorical legs to saber rattling. But the mixed bag has less resonance with a war-weary public than before.
Domestic policies such as support for increasing the minimum wage, unemployment insurance and rational energy and environmental development usually trump world affairs in most elections. There is always room for an October surprise, but even that usually favors the incumbent.
A recent court decision overturning Wisconsin’s restrictive voter access law reflects court decisions elsewhere: Requiring voter identification is permissible, but not if it, by design or effect, disproportionately impacts minorities and lower-income voters. Even Florida has reinstituted early voting, notably for the Sunday before Election Day when many church groups get out the vote.
Maybe the game is up on voter suppression. Leading Republican presidential contenders have begun to urge their party to move away from that issue because it’s self-destructive.
At his State of the Union address, the president’s singling out a 106-year-old woman who waited hours to vote highlights the determination citizens have to cast their ballots. Perhaps that indelible image helped shame those who would undo the historical move to increase rather than decrease voter turnout.
And the failure of immigration reform continues to alienate moderately conservative voters who tend to support traditional family policies.
Controversial cultural issues have lost their appeal to middle Americans so rapidly that it’s hard to keep up. Court decisions and opinion polls on same-sex marriage and marijuana use have altered the social landscape. Pockets of folks crying “the sky is falling” are shrinking into localized enclaves.
Minimum-wage proposals and wage stagnation, issues that progressives advocate, also have strong appeal to independent and likely voters. A Hart Research poll shows 68 percent of swing voters feel their incomes are falling behind. Voters increasingly identify as “working people” rather than as “middle class,” and they are looking for candidates who understand their economic struggles. They want a “fighter” for working people.
The poll shows that asking the wealthy and corporations to pay their fair share is a powerful issue, especially ending tax breaks for outsourcing jobs or hiding corporate profits overseas. Advocates for funding public services also gain support when they tie it to ending special tax breaks and loopholes for corporations and/or the wealthy.
If progressive candidates speak to these pocketbook concerns, the electorate will respond.
There is a fault line in my argument. A laundry list of seemingly persuasive reasons doesn’t always carry the day. Voters often agree with you on the issues but vote for the other guy anyway. So a progressive wipeout still may happen.
Despite the dire predictions, how should we as teacher unionists face the coming battle? As we always do: with an all-out fight for labor’s progressive agenda. We must counter the highly financed assault on truth. We must be happy warriors and we must bring out the vote.
My predecessor, Tom Pappas, always reminds us, “The bad guys never go away.”
Bloodbath or not, neither do we.